Predicting software development platforms

I’m going to make three predictions today:

  • Cloud vs. PC: The PC is not going to fade into insignificance in the near (1-2 years) or more distant (3-10 years) future.
  • Tablet/Mobile vs. PC: See above.
  • Cross platform development tools are going to rise in popularity.

You are welcome to come back anytime during the next decade and prove me wrong.

Now when I say PC, I’m referring to an independent unit with a strong CPU, a good deal of dynamic and static memory, a large screen and a real keyboard.

I’ve been around long enough to see through hypes and trends. Its always amusing to see a new herd mentality thinking that this or that new technology is going to replace everything. Nothing ever solves everything. I guess its a human wish that a savior will come and with a magic solution solve every problem with one sweep. Life is more interesting and more complex than that. New technologies and methodologies fill a space that was less suited than older technologies, that’s why cloud technologies and mobile technologies are here to stay. But at the same time, old methodologies fill a space that newer ones shouldn’t try to since they will not do it as well. As I ranted on the now inactive JNEXT site, the wisdom is to keep a sense of balance and use the right combination tools and methodologies for the job. Don’t let a specific technology or methodology be your hammer.

Anyway, back to the prediction thing

  • On the Web: expect rising popularity of higher level languages that compile to JavaScript+HTML5.
  • On mobile devices, additional and improved cross platform development frameworks. Native applications will continue to be popular and HTML5 based applications won’t replace them.
  • On PCs, Qt will become more popular being the strongest multiplatform development tool. Qt applications will eventually compile to all popular mobile devices.

Now I’ll hop back to my time machine and wait for 10 years to check this post again.

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